Take the Advice of Angels

 

Take the Advice of Angels: Settle for the Lamb of Pride

In this post I will comment on the narrative that the Russian-Ukraine war is being deliberately extended by Russia. This narrative assumes that a speedy victory for Ukraine and by extension the Western alliance is for NATO and the West to exponentially increase the level of supply of weapons and munitions flowing into Ukraine.

This narrative does not countenance the possibility of an inclusive peace process that includes Russia as a vested partner in a peaceful resolution. I will discuss several recent attempts by Global South countries to come up with inclusive peace plans which unfortunately don’t appear to have had much success. Ukraine is currently trying to convince some key Global South countries to accept its own peace proposals without including Russia in the discussions.

At the heart of all of this is a moral dilemma confronting the parties to this war. They have a choice between continued and escalating warfare or diplomatic resolution that will result in an end to war that guarantees the security of Ukraine and Russia as well and above all spare the lives of Europe’s sons and daughters, who when all is said and done are the ones making the greatest sacrifice.

On June 20, 2023 the government funded Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) posted a commentary that advocates further escalation, on the part of NATO and the West of the Russia-Ukraine war. The commentary Vladimir Putin's plan to win quickly in Ukraine failed. Russia is now implementing an even more brutal strategy is written by Major General Mick Ryan (retired); hereafter referred to as Mr. Ryan.

Mr. Ryan opens his commentary with the following words:

“In a December 2022 interview with The Economist, the commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valerii Zaluzhni, noted that the Russians "were not idiots". Despite their various missteps in this war, the Russians have demonstrated the ability to learn and adapt.”

From these comments I detect a change in stance in how Mr. Ryan views the Russian military.

In a previous article, posted on the ABC News website Leadership is Ukraine's secret ingredient in war with Russia Mr. Ryan argued that the secret ingredient to a Ukrainian victory in the war is quality democratic civilian and military leadership. Good leadership in combat against a corrupt and inept Russian military.

I hope that Mr. Ryan may have digested the contents of several reports that I referred to in my previous post: In the mix of things is the secret ingredient of leadership sufficient? This post referenced material showing that the Russians were learning from their mistakes and proving to be formidable adversaries.

In apparently now conceding that the Russians are not so inept Mr. Ryan makes the following observation:

“One important element of Russian strategic adaptation in the past six months has been Russian President Vladimir Putin's embrace of a revised strategy that draws out the length of the conflict.”

He enlightens us further by writing:

“This evolved Russian strategy has embraced the idea that while assistance might be flowing now, Western populations and politicians will eventually tire of the war. Putin has also stated publicly that he expects a long war in Ukraine, calling his invasion a "a long process".

Briefly, Mr. Ryan outlines what he describes as Russia’s long strategy implemented in two-phases:

·         Phase One: Buying time

·         Phase Two: Defend on multiple fronts

Mr. Ryan does not mention that it is not just Mr. Putin that is now anticipating a long fight. U.S. political and military officials have also characterised the current Ukrainian offensive strategy as a slow process as well.

On June 15, 2023 MSN’s Matt Berg reported comments made by U.S. Secretary of Defense:  Austin: Ukraine war 'a marathon, and not a sprint.

Mr. Berg writes:

“Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin urged nations to keep support to Ukraine flowing as it fights Russia’s invasion, calling the war efforts “a marathon, and not a sprint” during a meeting with world leaders on Thursday.”

The privately owned German Press Agency (DPA), on June 21, 2023 reported on Twitter Stoltenberg Says NATO Will Help Ukraine To Modernize Its Military that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in a recent interview with the German newspaper Tagesspiegel as well as recommending that NATO provide more military aide has also emphasised the difficulties of the Ukrainian counteroffensive relating that tough terrain and Russian defensive fortifications comprising minefields and tank traps are making the Ukrainian June offensive tougher.

So, the Ukrainian June Offensive is not a sprint. It is grinding horrible warfare that is taking its toll on not just soldiers but also churning through the weapons and equipment provided by the west. Mr. Ryan having apparently realised that the strategy of the Russians is one of long attritional war now sees the secret ingredient to be escalation of military support on the part of the Western powers.

The approach to take, according to Mr. Ryan now hinges on strong Western political leadership and an increase in armaments from outside of Ukraine:

“Achieving this will require the kind of decisive and courageous political leadership we have seen from Baltic and Eastern European governments, the United States, as well as Jens Stoltenberg at NATO.”

The other ingredient is fast flowing military aid:

“The other way to ensure Russia fails in its "don't lose" strategy is rapid, and continuous, military assistance.”

So, more economic and military resources are to be thrown at Russia’s defense lines in the hope that, no matter the cost these will be breached.

Mr. Ryan is placing all his hopes of Russian defeat on NATO escalation in order to extend the conflict further into the indeterminate future (this year and beyond):

“To this end, the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius will be an important international meeting. Not only will it serve to confirm NATO's strategy for supporting Ukraine, but it will also allow for a multitude of national leaders to hear firsthand why their ongoing support and strategic patience is vital for this year and beyond.”

Mr. Ryan, in his comments has not factored in the apparent limits to this support. In my previous post referenced above: In the mix of things is the secret ingredient of leadership sufficient I mentioned RUSI, RAND Corporation and CSIS reports that place limits on the West’s military and Industrial complex, in contrast with the strengths of the Russian military industrial complex in keeping up with the demands of this war.

A recent analysis The Pentagon Is Freaking Out About a Potential War with China published by POLITICO, written by Michael Hirsh highlights how severely stretched the U.S military industrial complex is. This complex is being challenged within the context of potential conflict with China. I wonder whether Mr. Ryan is aware of such analyses when he calls for more military aid to fight Russia.

Mr. Hirsh writes:

“The problem has come into sharp relief only in the last few years as Russia invaded Ukraine, leading to a prolonged war that has drained U.S. munitions stockpiles, and China dramatically escalated both its military spending and aggressive rhetoric against Taiwan. In the last year the U.S. has allocated nearly $50 billion in security aid to Kyiv, possibly cutting further into its deterrent against China. In other words, the failure to deter Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine and the stress this has put on the U.S. defense industrial base should be sounding alarms for the U.S. military posture vis-a-vis Taiwan, many defense experts say.”

There is no consideration in Mr. Ryan’s calculations for another secret ingredient of leadership in Mr. Ryan’s analysis and that is the diplomatic pursuit of peace to end this crisis.

Back in April 24, 2023 CNN’s Julia Jones reported Brazil's Lula pitches 'peace coalition' for Ukraine, but he treads a thin line:

“Calling for peace in Ukraine from thousands of miles away, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been trying to position himself as a possible mediating force in the conflict for months now.”

Ms. Jones continues with the following comments:

“Lula’s proposal is to create “a G20 for peace” – a group of countries strong enough to be respected at the negotiating table, but that are still considered by some as neutral in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Indonesia, India, and China would play a crucial role in his vision, but Latin American countries are also invited to join the apparent initiative.”

Ms. Jones points out that Brazil’s proposal had not gained traction with the West:

“The United States, France, and Germany have heard Lula’s pitch to create a team of peacemakers. Lula has also broached the idea with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, but left Beijing earlier this month without any formal commitment.”

Ms. Jones continues by elaborating on this lack of traction:

“Lula has struggled to make his proposal widely persuasive. One controversial idea that he has floated for a possible resolution would see Ukraine cede Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014 – a concession that Kyiv has ruled out and which the White House has described as “simply misguided.”

I wonder whether Mr. Ryan has read an analysis entitled Africa’s Peace Delegation: A New Chapter for Africa and the Ukraine War published, on June 16, 2023 by the Centre for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS). The commentary is authored by Catherine Nzuki.

Regarding the recent six nation African Peace Mission visiting Kyiv and Moscow; that was led by the South African President to Kyiv and St. Petersburg Ms. Nzuki writes:

“In the long term, the strategic nonalignment of many African countries makes them well positioned to be neutral peace brokers to the war in Ukraine, but they are constrained by their limited leverage.”

On June 20, 2023 the BBC’s Mayeni Jones, in a post entitled: Africa's Ukraine-Russia peace mission: What was achieved? wrote:

“South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has hailed as "historic" last week's trip of African leaders to Ukraine and Russia, describing it as "the first time African leaders have embarked on a peace mission beyond" the continent.”

Ms. Jones then went on to damp down Mr. Ramaphosa’s euphoria as well as question his intentions:

“However, with neither warring sides agreeing to peace talks, did it make any difference, or was it just an attempt by Mr Ramaphosa to secure attention on the global stage, amid mounting problems in South Africa?”

Ms. Jones outlines the proposal, and the outcome of the delegation as follows:

“The delegation from South Africa, Egypt, Senegal, Congo-Brazzaville, Comoros, Zambia, and Uganda put forward a 10-point proposal, including a recognition of Russia and Ukraine's sovereignty and continued unhindered grain exports.

They also called for a de-escalation of fighting and for negotiations to commence with urgency, for the release of prisoners of war and for greater humanitarian support, among other requests.

Both Russia and Ukraine agreed to continue engagement, South Africa said, but on Saturday Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to dismiss large chunks of the plan. Ukraine also appeared lukewarm.”

Ms.  Jones points out:

“The key aim of the trip was to help strengthen the case for a negotiated diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine, and in that respect, it has not been a success.”

Ms. Jones relates that Ukraine insists on its borders being established in accordance with its 1991 boundaries which include the Crimean Peninsula. On its part Russia cannot accept this insisting that the new territorial reality must be a crucial element in any negotiations.

In the light of these opposing views Ms. Jones writes:

“Despite failing to bring the two sides of the conflict together, Mr Ramaphosa argues that his delegation opened the door for future talks.”

Apparently and sadly, all these voices don’t appear to be having traction with Mr. Ryan who only sees the solution as more NATO support to keep the war going. He provides no tangible picture of how all this conflict will end and the stakes involved for Europe and the U.S.

What is the U.S. response to all these efforts? The Financial Times published on June 22, 2023 an article entitled Top US official to meet Ukraine war sceptics from developing nations written by Demetri Sevastopulo and Henry Foy who reported the following:

“Joe Biden’s top national security aide will fly to Denmark this weekend at the behest of Kyiv’s government for an unannounced meeting with representatives of several developing countries that have not condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

These writers continued by pointing out:

“Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, has agreed to attend the meeting in Copenhagen with officials from countries including India, Brazil and South Africa, according to people familiar with the plans. The list of attendees has not been finalised and could change before the gathering, one of the people cautioned.

Confirming my point concerning the June offensive the writers related that:

“The diplomatic offensive comes as Ukrainian leaders have acknowledged their highly-touted counteroffensive is progressing more slowly than hoped. Officials from Turkey and possibly China could also attend.”

As of writing this post the Copenhagen meeting had taken place on Saturday June 24. The details of the discussion have oddly not been reported in much detail by the Western Media.

CNN published a very brief commentary on June 25, 2023: International talks held in Copenhagen were "constructive". 

The news website UKRINFORM posted a report on Monday, June 26 offering a bit more detail: Yermak outlines results of advisers’ meeting in Copenhagen. This report states that Andriy Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian President’s Office as making the following comments on Telegram:

“…. consultations on the key principles of peace were held in Copenhagen with national security advisers and political advisers from Brazil, the United Kingdom, Denmark, the EU, Italy, India, Canada, Germany, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, the USA, Turkey, Ukraine, France, and Japan.”

According UKRINFORM Mr. Yermak also wrote:

“He noted that during the consultations, the Ukrainian delegation told its international partners about the details of President Volodymyr Zelensky's Peace Formula.

UKRINFORM reported that Mr. Yamak reminded the meeting that “….  that the 10-point Peace Formula is based on the principles of the UN Charter and international law…. Each of the directions of the Ukrainian Peace Formula was enshrined in the resolutions of the UN General Assembly. Yermak noted that the parties once again confirmed their commitment”.

The Ukrainska Pravda Ukraine's Peace Formula was discussed in Denmark with participation of representatives of India, South Africa and Brazil reported on June 25, 2023:

“National security advisers and political advisers agreed that the consultation format is successful, and it is also a good platform for continuing work and further working out the issue of holding a Global Peace Summit in the future," Yermak said, adding that the participants agreed to continue the consultation format.”

The details of this 10-Point formula have not been elaborated on as for the proposed Global Peace Summit when and where it will be held has not been determined as yet.

On June 26, 2023 the Teller Report New site in an articled Ukraine war: Informal peace meeting held in Copenhagen observed that:

“Not much is known about the peace meeting. Deutschlandfunk even reported on a peace conference "under strict secrecy". The head of the presidential office in Kiev, Andriy Yermak, confirmed the meeting on Sunday via Twitter.”

USNEWS on June 26, 2023 posted a Reuters piece Ukraine 'Peace Summit' Talks Make Progress but Long Way to Go -Officials written by Andrew Gray.

Mr. Gray wrote that Ukraine together with its allies are working to construct wide international support for Ukraine peace blueprint. He reports that although progress has been achieved an international meeting of heads of state that would endorse such a document will not happen for several months.  Mr. Gray noted that China declined an invitation to attend the talks thus blunting the hopes of Ukraine and its supporters that a worldwide union of nations regarding their peace blueprint.

It is strange that the discussion of peace formulae and the organisation of peace summits is happening without the participation of Russia. I would have thought all the protagonists involved in a terrible war would need to be seated at the same table for any sustainable peaceful outcome to be hammered out.

All of this is happening at a time when conservatively, hundreds of thousands Ukrainian soldiers have died or have been wounded during the course of this war, thousands in shocking circumstances over the over the last two or three weeks. There is also the destruction to NATO supplied, largely unintegrated and fragile military weaponry and equipment.

This brings me back to Mr. Ryan’s commentary; Mr. Ryan confirms the following fact:

“But the Ukrainians, as they have throughout this war, trudge on. Their army is grimly working its way through Russian defences and defending the skies from a Russian missile and drone onslaught.”

Mr. Ryan in saying these things glosses over the reality and the human toll of this grim effort.  Mr. Ryan clearly shows his understanding of the repercussions of all of this:

“The scale of fighting now underway in Ukraine is beyond the experience, or even imagination, of most of our citizens. Casualties will be heavy, the consumption of ammunition massive and loss of equipment will be ongoing.”

What is frightening about Mr. Ryan’s narrative is an assumption that Ukraine can sustain this; that Ukraine has an indefinite supply of soldiers that can use the fast-diminishing supplies of weapons and munitions that NATO is planning to provide.

It looks as though the Ukrainian and Russian troops will continue to suffer and be wasted in a brutal attrition that our citizens can’t imagine. Finally, Mr. Ryan tells his ABC readers the truth of this crisis, but his only remedy is more of the same escalation with no apparent and tangible end.

I have touched on efforts on the part of leaders of the global south to bring up the subject of peace making. Is there no voice from our political elites in the West that can enlighten our citizenry to challenge Mr. Ryan’s escalatory narrative before things get really out of hand in a world where there are nuclear weapons?

The subscriber funded BBC published, on June 22, 2023 an article Ukraine war: Zelensky admits slow progress but says offensive is not a movie featuring an interview with the Ukrainian President written by Yalda Hakim who in the opening comments quotes the President as follows:

“President Volodymyr Zelensky has acknowledged battlefield progress has been "slower than desired", weeks into Ukraine's military offensive to recapture areas occupied by Russia.

"Some people believe this is a Hollywood movie and expect results now. It's not," he told the BBC.

"What's at stake is people's lives."

I close this post with a quote taken from an Open Letter, published on May 16, 2023 in an advertisement in the New York Times to the U.S. President, Mr. Biden. The authors, U.S. security experts Russia-Ukraine War: The U.S. Should Be a Force for Peace write in a manner that lifts the veil on Mr. Ryan’s manacled world view:

“We deplore the violence, war crimes, indiscriminate missile strikes, terrorism, and other atrocities that are part of this war. The solution to this shocking violence is not more weapons or more war, with their guarantee of further death and destruction.

As Americans and national security experts, we urge President Biden and Congress to use their full power to end the Russia-Ukraine War speedily through diplomacy, especially given the grave dangers of military escalation that could spiral out of control.”

One more quote from a poem, The Parable of the Old Man and the Young written by Wilfred Owen which in its allegorical form relates how the first-born son of Abram asked:

“…. My Father,

Behold the preparations, fire and iron,

But where the lamb for this burnt-offering?

Then Abram bound the youth with belts and straps,

And builded parapets and trenches there,

And stretched forth the knife to slay his son.

When lo! An angel called him out of heaven,

Saying, Lay not thy hand upon the lad,

Neither do anything to him. Behold,

A ram, caught in the thicket by its horns;

Offer the Ram of Pride instead of him.

But the old man would not so, but slew his son,

And half the seed of Europe, one by one.